Study: Animal-to-human diseases could kill 12 times as much by 2050

The article from Medical Xpress discusses a study predicting a significant rise in deaths caused by zoonotic diseases – illnesses transmitted from animals to humans – by 2050. Researchers from Ginkgo Bioworks have warned that these diseases could be responsible for 12 times more deaths in 2050 compared to 2020. This alarming projection is attributed to environmental changes, such as climate change and deforestation, which are believed to increase the frequency of epidemics.

The study conducted a comprehensive analysis of over 3,150 outbreaks from 1963 to 2019, focusing on 75 spillover events across 24 countries. It specifically examined four viral pathogens: filoviruses (including Ebola and Marburg viruses), SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus. Notably, the study did not include COVID-19, despite its likely zoonotic origin. The data revealed a consistent increase in the number and severity of these outbreaks, with the majority of deaths attributed to filoviruses, primarily in Africa.

The researchers emphasize that the recent surge in zoonotic spillovers is not a random occurrence but part of a multi-decade trend of escalating frequency and severity. They highlight the urgent need for global health initiatives to address this trend, warning that the current trajectory suggests a large and growing risk to global health. The findings, published in BMJ Global Health, call for immediate action to mitigate the impact of these diseases and safeguard public health in the coming decades.