Number of Prostate Cancer Cases Set to Increase to 2.9 Million in 2040

FRIDAY, April 5, 2024 (HealthDay News) -- The number of new prostate cancer cases is set to increase to 2.9 million in 2040, according to a study published online April 4 in The Lancet.

Nicholas D. James, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., from the Institute of Cancer Research in London, and colleagues reported projections of prostate cancer cases in 2040 based on data for demographic changes worldwide and increasing life expectancy.

The authors note that the number of new cases of prostate cancer is projected to increase from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040. Large increases in disease are expected due to changing age structure and improving life expectancy. Lifestyle changes and public health interventions cannot prevent the projected rise in prostate cancer cases. Late diagnosis of prostate cancer is widespread, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), where it is the norm. Systems for earlier diagnosis are urgently needed to mitigate the harm caused by rising case numbers, especially in LMICs. To improve early diagnosis, trials of screening are urgently needed, the authors state. The increase in prostate cancer is likely to be reflected in increases in other conditions, and consequently, early diagnosis programs should focus on men's health more broadly. A key research priority is better understanding of ethnic differences in disease prevalence, because rates of prostate cancer are twice as high in men of African heritage. The authors conclude that treatment of advanced prostate cancer remains problematic, and affordable therapies are unevenly distributed.

"In view of the large projected rise in cases, long-term changes need to be rolled out from now if large increases in prostate cancer deaths are to be prevented," the authors write.

Several authors disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and diagnostics industries.

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